Pre-tourney Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2015-16


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
87 UNC Wilmington 100.0%   12   23 - 7 14 - 4 23 - 7 14 - 4 +6.5      +4.1 81 +2.5 109 75.0 68 +8.3 75 +9.3 2
92 William & Mary 0.0%   18 - 11 11 - 7 18 - 11 11 - 7 +5.9      +5.9 48 0.0 180 69.9 178 +5.3 99 +4.6 5
96 Hofstra 1.7%   23 - 9 14 - 4 23 - 9 14 - 4 +5.8      +4.3 75 +1.5 131 72.6 109 +7.9 76 +9.5 1
97 James Madison 0.0%   20 - 11 11 - 7 20 - 11 11 - 7 +5.7      +1.8 128 +3.9 75 67.9 234 +4.5 108 +4.6 4
124 College of Charleston 0.0%   16 - 14 8 - 10 16 - 14 8 - 10 +2.8      -5.0 297 +7.8 18 63.0 330 +1.8 142 +0.7 7
127 Northeastern 0.0%   16 - 15 9 - 9 16 - 15 9 - 9 +2.5      +2.2 117 +0.3 171 64.1 312 +2.8 127 +2.2 6
140 Towson 0.0%   19 - 12 11 - 7 19 - 12 11 - 7 +1.8      +1.6 131 +0.2 172 64.6 302 +2.5 133 +5.1 3
156 Elon 0.0%   14 - 16 7 - 11 14 - 16 7 - 11 +0.5      +1.2 147 -0.7 190 77.7 37 +0.5 162 -0.5 8
230 Drexel 0.0%   6 - 24 3 - 15 6 - 24 3 - 15 -4.1      -3.1 247 -0.9 194 63.6 321 -6.1 255 -7.0 9
270 Delaware 0.0%   7 - 23 2 - 16 7 - 23 2 - 16 -6.8      -2.3 228 -4.5 292 68.7 211 -6.3 260 -9.1 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
UNC Wilmington 1.0 100.0
William & Mary 3.0 100.0
Hofstra 1.0 100.0
James Madison 3.0 100.0
College of Charleston 7.0 100.0
Northeastern 6.0 100.0
Towson 3.0 100.0
Elon 8.0 100.0
Drexel 9.0 100.0
Delaware 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 14 - 4 100.0
William & Mary 11 - 7 100.0
Hofstra 14 - 4 100.0
James Madison 11 - 7 100.0
College of Charleston 8 - 10 100.0
Northeastern 9 - 9 100.0
Towson 11 - 7 100.0
Elon 7 - 11 100.0
Drexel 3 - 15 100.0
Delaware 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 100.0% 100.0
William & Mary
Hofstra 100.0% 100.0
James Madison
College of Charleston
Northeastern
Towson
Elon
Drexel
Delaware


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.2 15.0 52.2 31.2 1.4
William & Mary 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Hofstra 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0 1.2 0.5 0.0 98.3 1.7%
James Madison 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
College of Charleston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northeastern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Towson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Elon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Drexel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Delaware 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 20.0% 4.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 1.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.3 1.7
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 99.4 0.6
2nd Round 20.0% 0.2 80.0 20.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.9% 0.0 95.1 4.9
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.8
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0